Hidden carbon emission in cross-provincial trade has vital impacts on regional gross carbon emission and coordinated development, a key factor needed to be considered when planning carbon trade and reaching “carbon peaking” and “carbon neutralization” objectives. This paper uses multiple regional input/output model on hidden carbon in cross-provincial trade and China’s 2012 and 2017 input/output data to study the temporal-spatial changes of hidden carbon emission of Shanxi cross-provincial trade, and employes carbon-transferring-responsibility-sharing to estimate Shanxi’s responsibilities in hidden carbon emission amid its cross-provincial trade, and applies structural method to analyze the factors impacting hidden carbon emission changes in Shanxi’s cross-provincial trade. Shanxi’s net-transferred-in hidden carbon emission has increased by 12.490 kt during 2012 to 2017, while its net-transferred-in provinces numbers dropped to 25 from 28. Those having less net-transferred-out are concentrating in northwestern and southwestern China. Structural analysis suggests scaling effect be the leading factor increasing transferred-in and -out of Shanxi’s hidden carbon emission. This paper presents suggestions on optimizing Shanxi’s hidden carbon emission policies of its cross-provincial trade.
Study on carbon emission factors and scenario prediction of Heilongjiang’s industrial sectors is of significance to reach Heilongjiang’s green low-carbon development under the background of carbon peaking and carbon neutralization. This paper uses IPCC to estimate Heilongjiang’s historical industrial carbon emission, and applies extended STIRPAT model to determine the six variables from population, economy and technology, square of GDP per capita, population scale, gross industrial production, industrial energy consumption, energy consuming efficiency and energy structure, and employes ridge regression to establish a carbon emission factor model by removing the multi-collinearity of independent variables. This paper also studies Heilongjiang’s social and economic reality from economic development, population scale, energy consumption and energy consumption efficiency, and determines the increment of independent variables combined with macroscopic policies, and predicts its 2020 to 2050 Heilongjiang’s appropriate industrial carbon emission under three scenarios, benchmark, low-carbon and highly-energy-consuming. Heilongjiang’s industrial low-carbon development is facing a huge demand for fossil energy and insufficient energy conversion efficient. Among the six factors impacting industrial carbon emission, square of GDP per capita, gross industrial production, industrial energy consumption and energy structure promote its industrial carbon emission, of which industrial energy consumption works the most, while population scale and energy consuming efficiency play on the contrast. Heilongjiang’s industrial carbon emission shows an increasing-then-decreasing evolutionary trend under the all three scenarios, varying in peaking time and heights, 71.35 millions tons in 2030 under the low-carbon scenario, 89.97 millions tons in 2035 under the benchmark scenario, and 123.68 millions tons in 2045 under the highly-energy-consuming scenario. This paper presents suggestions on largely adjusting industrial energy use structure, focusing on energy technical conversion and upgrade, and perfecting low-carbon green policies.
To explore the causes of eco-footprint dynamic changes from perspective of economic development, this paper measures the developing path of the per capita ecological footprint from 2002 to 2014 in Lanzhou, a loess plateau valley city, uses ARIMA model to forecast its ecological footprint changing trend from 2015 to 2020. The per capita ecological footprint is rising from 2.70 hm2 in 2002 to 4.25 hm2 in 2014, increase of 1.57 times. And the rising rate of the per capita ecological footprint reaches to 4.04%, 7.84% lower than its GDP’s growing rate 11.88%, suggesting Lanzhou’s economic development speed is higher than speed of resources and environmental consumption. The per capita ecological footprint of Lanzhou from 2015 to 2020 still shows a rising trend, forecasted to reach up to 4.48 hm2, 4.61 hm2, 4.75 hm2, 4.89 hm2, 5.02 hm2 and 5.17 hm2, with an enlarging ecological deficit. Lanzhou’s gross ecological footprint is 19.59 times of the total area of urban land use, indicating a strong correlation between economic growth and ecological demands,indicating the inflection point of Environmental Kuznets curve doesn’t take place, implying a unsustainable status. This paper presents a path to decreasing Lanzhou’s ecological footprint from adjusting industrial structure, decreasing ecological deficit to promote economic quality and sustainable capacity, advancing green development, and constructing an ecological network of ecological diversity, appropriate layout, full-functional integration of natural ecosystems and rural-urban union to increase eco-environmental capacity.
SPATIAL IMBALANCE AND DYNAMIC EVOLUTION OF CHINA’S LOW-CARBON ENERGY CONSUMPTION STRUCTURE
It is a key step to study China’s low-carbon energy consumption structural trend and to measure its spatial imbalance in advancing energy reform and green development. This paper, based on 2003 to 2020 energy consumption panel data of Chinese provinces/cities, uses Theil Index and spatial auto-correlation to study spatial imbalance and dynamic evolution of China’s low carbon energy consumption structure. The low carbon index of China’s energy consumption structure generally shows a rising trend, up 5.862 in 2020 from 5.298 in 2003. The spatial imbalance of China’s low carbon energy consumption structure is weak, in a rising-then-declining trend indicated by Theil Index. Regional low-carbon energy consumption structure variance largely impacts the overall difference. China’s low-carbon energy consumption structure is of obvious spatial positive correlation with spatial concentrating effect, relatively stably in overall spatial pattern, high-high concentrating in Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai, weak-weak in southwest and central China. This paper presents suggestions on constructing regional interest union by mutually cooperation, on advancing industrial structure to stimulate social innovation and market, and on optimizing energy industry structure to push energy consumption transformation.
TEMPORAL-SPATIAL EFFECTS OF DIGITAL ECONOMY ON HIGH-QUALITY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT BASED ON GTWR MODEL
This paper, aiming at promoting a coordinated development of water works tourism in Yellow River stream, uses gravity center standard deviation ellipse, kernel density and exploring spatial data analysis method to study the temporal-spatial evolution of water works resorts in 2009, 2014, and 2021 in Yellow River stream, and combines “point-axis” theory with central function index and gravity model to define the development nodes, axis and plates in water works tourism. Development of water works resorts in Yellow River stream has 3 stages. Resorts are spreading along E-W and S-N with gravity center shifting to southwest. Their distributing density shows scattering in the upper-stream and concentrating in the middle- and down-stream, high density concentrating areas are located along banks of Yellow River, Weihe River, Fenhe River and Qinhe River. Their spatial distribution generally displays a strongly positive correlation, “high-high” concentrating in Shandong province, “low-low” in Hehuang valley and partial Gansu province. Hotspots in Yellow River stream remain unchanged, while the cold spots are concentrating toward the upper-stream, and the sub-hotspots migrating to the northwestern middle-stream. Spatial structure after being optimized is composed of three levels of water works tourism development nodes, two levels of development axes and five development domains. This paper presents suggestions on differentiating domain variance, optimizing spatial pattern of water works tourism from construction status, water resources, geographic characteristics and social-cultural environment. And improving transportation, consolidating water works tourism, boosting radiation of node cities.
This paper incorporates industrial agglomeration, green technical innovation and green economic efficiency to study the impact of new energy vehicle industrial agglomeration on green economic efficiency in Yangtze River economic zone, aiming at offering references for China to reach strategic objectives of manufacturing power and to develop new energy vehicles in Yangtze River economic zone under the dual-carbon settings. This paper, based on 11 provinces/cities’ 2012 to 2020 panel data along Yangtze River economic zone, uses super-efficiency SBM and locality entropy to establish a measuring model, which is employed to study impacts of new energy vehicle industrial agglomeration on green economic efficiency. And discusses mediating effects of green technical innovation. The spatial overflowing effects and regional heterogeneity of new-energy vehicle industrial agglomeration on green economic efficiency also were analyzed. The entire Yangtze River economic zone has become a zoned new energy vehicle industrial agglomeration area, with its agglomerating level fluctuating up over years, and increasing from down- to upper-stream with growing variance. New energy vehicle industrial agglomeration promotes the green economic efficiency in Yangtze River economic zone through consolidating internal network resources and boosting external entire capabilities. Development of industrial agglomeration promotes green technical innovation through competition and cooperation, and development of green technical innovation can also boost economic drives and efficiency, proving its mediation between industrial agglomeration and green economic efficiency. New energy vehicle industrial agglomeration has spatial overflowing on green economic efficiency, varying among upper-, middle- and down-stream. This paper presents suggestions on enhancing industrial clustering construction to play a role in the long-term mechanism of new energy vehicle industry, boosting green technical innovation system and advancing regional heterogeneity of new energy vehicle.
THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS AND VARIATIONS IN ENERGY STRUCTURE ADJUSTMENT UNDER CARBON NEUTRALITY TARGET IN THE YANGTZE RIVER DELTA REGION
The 20th Report presented an objective of carbon peaking and neutralization. Energy structural adjustment is a vital means to reach carbon neutralization. This paper, based on their symbiosis of carbon emission and economic growth, incorporates economic quality development into carbon neutralization objective. In terms of their 2017 inputs/outputs of three province and one city in Yangtze River delta, this paper establishes a regional macro- and microscopic SAM table and CGE model, and sets up a macroscopic economic closed system, which are used to study the impacts and variance of energy structural adjustment on Yangtze River delta’s economy. As energy structural transformation advances, its economic impacts vary. In Jiangsu province, when clean energy has been replaced at 5%, 10%, 15% and 20%, the economic impacts of multiple indicators gain a biggest loss at 5%, loss at 10% less than at 5% and 15%. Economic dependance on fossil fuels varies with location, less in Anhui and Shanghai, then Jiangsu, and Zhejiang receives the biggest impacts. Economic impacts waves as energy structural adjustment moves forward. When Jiangsu’s clean energy is replaced at 10%, economic impacts of most indicators from agricultural, manufacturing, servicing, GDP and governmental income are less than when clean energy is replaced at 5% and at 15%. Energy structural adjustment is a critical approach to carbon neutralization in Yangtze River delta and even nationwide.
Overviews over references reveal that defects are existing in traditional industrial deviation E coefficient, Theil Index and Shift-Share model. Defects in E coefficient and Theil Index are in calculating principles, and those in Shift-Share model are in rationality of selecting reference system and feasibility of data collection. This paper presents an improved model that is used to study China’s 2012 to 2021 industrial deviation via cases. It concludes that China’s industrial deviation is diminishing. According to the corrected model and combined with the current global environment, this paper suggests that the first industry rely on scientific innovation to promote rural labors’ orderly migration between urban and rural areas and to materialize agricultural scale and modernization, that the second industry needs to be upgraded to reach and maintain an independent and complete industrial system, to inputs more in basic research to outbreak western technical blockage, that the third industry be focusing on financing and scientific education, increasing Hongkong, Shanghai and Beijing’s positions in world financing center, using financial innovation to avoid unfavorable constraints and impacts from global financing system, practicing the strategy for invigorating the country through science and education and exploring educational modes appropriate China’s situation from primary school to university stages.
EMPIRICAL STUDY ON SYMBIOTIC EVOLUTION OF ADVANCED MANUFACTURING AND PRODUCTIVE SERVICING IN SICHUAN-CHONGQING AREA
This paper uses modified ecological footprint model to study farmland ecological deficit and excess in Xinjiang, estimates its ecological footprint with biological resource footprint and carbon footprint incorporated, the result has a difference with farmland ecological carrying capacity which is farmland ecological excess/deficit. This paper applies ecological servicing non-market value model, consistent with paying capability, and employs Type-S growth curve modified coefficient to quantify 2010 to 2020 farmland ecological compensation of Xinjiang ‘s 14 prefectures. Influenced by production and carbon sequestration capability, ecological footprint is higher in Tulufan, Kashi and Yili ‘s farmlands, the latter two with a larger supply capacity have a stronger ecological carrying capacity. Ecological deficit or excess exists in the southern and northern Xinjiang, where has a severer ecological deficit, most in Tulufan. Non-market values of unit farmland ecological servicing generally have a consistent trend in 2010 to 2020, declining over years. Impacted by excess/deficit area and non-market values of unit farmland ecological servicing, farmland ecological compensation has a falling-then-rising trend, 2813 million CNY needed to be paid to Tulufan in 2020, and 1303 million CNY to Yili. This paper presents suggestions on developing green agriculture to decrease carbon footprint, properly estimating farmland ecological compensation standard, and establishing a more appropriate farmland ecological compensation mechanism in terms of farmland ecological compensation standards, ways, fund sources and receivers ‘ priorities.
DECOUPLING BETWEEN TOURISM CARBON FOOTPRINT AND INCOME IN JIANGSU ‘S YANGTZE RIVER ECONOMIC ZONE
TEMPORAL-SPATIAL FEATURES AND IMPACTS OF PLANTING AGGLOMERATION AND AGRICULTURAL AREA POLLUTION WITH EVIDENCES FROM YANGTZE RIVER STREAM
ECOLOGICAL COMPENSATION AND GOVERNMENTAL SUPERVISION UNDER POLLUTION INDUSTRIAL MIGRATION BASED ON SIGNAL GAMING OF COMPENSATION APPLICATION
This paper, aiming at mitigating opaque information and policy loophole, uses compensation application as signal to establish a signal gaming model based on ecological compensation of local government under pollution industrial migration, which is applied to discuss its gaming balance under different conditions, and to analyze effective compensation mechanism of industrial migration sender to receiver, providing references for governmental ecological compensation and central governmental supervision. Complete success of separated balance as the premium solution exists, initiative compensation application is working in mitigating opaque information. Receiver shall consider to match ecological compensation in terms of its emission reduction, and sender shall accordingly give the compensation. Appropriate punishment is key to the balance in reaching a social premium balance when sender ‘s punishment meetsFt
IMPACTS OF LOCAL GOVERNMENTAL BEHAVIORS ON INDUSTRIAL ENERGY ENVIRONMENTAL EFFICIENCY ALONG“THE BELT AND ROAD” PROVINCES/CITIES
China has a big energy consumption during industrialization, leading to severe environmental pollution, which requires an improving energy use efficiency. This paper, based on “the Belt and Road” provinces/cities ‘ 2010 to 2020 industries, uses intrinsic growth theory and quality development demand to establish a global non-radial directional distance function (GNDDF), which is employed to estimate the industrial energy environmental efficiency along “the Belt and Road” provinces/cities. Tobit model is applied to study the inner connection of industrial energy environmental efficiency and local governmental interventions, local governmental economic competition, local governmental preference on innovation and on environmental protection, and to discuss the impacts of governmental behaviors on industrial energy environmental efficiency. Industrial energy environmental efficiency shows a distribution order of “oceanic silk road>average>the silk road economic zone”, and an order of “southeast line>southwest line>northeast line>average>northwest line” on the side lines. Local governmental economic interventions and economic competition adversely affect industrial energy environmental efficiency, but their preference on innovation and environmental protection work positively. When their interventions are decreasing in intensity, the impacts will largely switch from negative to positive, increasingly but not outstandingly. This paper presents suggestions on simplifying governance, empowering, optimizing local governmental functions for increasing industrial energy environmental efficiency.
FDI, FINANCIAL PRESSURE AND GREEN TOTAL ELEMENT PRODUCTIVITY
China ‘s economy is in a critical transforming period, which is powered by improving environmental pollution and increasing energy use efficiency. This paper, from dual perspectives of financial pressure and FDI, combines financial pressure, FDI and green total element productivity into a united research framework, uses 2003 to 2021 green total element productivity of 30 provinces/cities ‘ panel data in China to establish a SAR, SEM and SDM to experimentally study their relation among FDI, financial pressure and both with green total element productivity and spatial effects. Green total element productivity, FDI and financial pressure are highly spatially correlated. Financial pressure and FDI adversely affect the increment of total green element productivity, but their interaction works positively. FDI, financial pressure and their interaction have regional spatial heterogeneity on green total element productivity. The eastern China ‘s FDI increases green total element productivity through blocking neighboring ‘s green total element productivity, while financial pressure and their interaction constraint it. The central-western China ‘s FDI and financial pressure constraint increasement of green total element productivity, but their interaction and spatial overflowing can promote it. FDI, financial pressure and their interaction have obvious temporal heterogeneity on green total element productivity, outstandingly positively correlated during 2003 to 2008, strikingly negatively during 2009 to 2021 while their interaction positively. This paper presents suggestions on increasing FDI ‘s quality, using pollution halo effect to increase green total element productivity, raising local governmental financing power to economically support green economic transformation, establishing regional cooperation on controlling pollution.
DECOUPLING STATUS STUDY ON SHAANXI ‘S ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND ECO-ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURE
INTERACTION BETWEEN INDUSTRIAL GREEN TRANSFORMATION & UPGRADING AND EMPLOYMENT STRUCTURAL OPTIMIZATION
To leverage the relation of green development with employment structural optimization and to fulfill functions of human resources allocation in increasing industrial total elements productivity have become a critical topic for economic quality development under the strategy of quality-to-power. This paper, based on 2011 to 2020 input/output and employment data of Jiangsu ‘s 13 prefectures, studies their green transformation/upgrading and employment structural changes, and uses PVAR model to analyze the interaction among productivity changes of green industrial total elements, employment structural advancing and rationalization. Jiangsu ‘s industrial green transformation & upgrading has made great progress, with a lack of rising power, at an annual growth rate at 0.74%, technical efficiency declining by 0.33% due to constraints by technical advances. Growth of input elements is outstandingly higher than the total elements productivity, suggesting industries still in an extensive state. Improving technical efficiency is the key factor for industries to promote industrial green transformation & upgrading. Jiangsu ‘s employment structural advancing and rationalization has a clear developing trend, but most prefectures are not at the same pace or both low. Imbalanced employment structural optimization and industrial green transformation & upgrading limits advancing technical efficiency. Industrial green transformation & upgrading plays a dual roles on employment structure, short-term destruction and long-term optimization, little on industrial green transformation & upgrading, but employment structural rationalization is of potential to boost industrial green transformation & upgrading at a contribution rate of 18.2%. Short-term employment structural advancing constrains rationalization, but the latter promotes the former, both at different pacing rates. Industrial green transformation & upgrading has a contribution rate at 80.5% to itself, lower rate to employment structural advancing and rationalization, at 11.2% and 8%, respectively. The mutual contribution rates between employment structural advancing and rationalization is much higher, up to 58.2%of employment structural advancing on rationalization. This paper presents suggestions actively adjusting employment structure to promote its rationalization and to reduce the impacts of industrial green transformation & upgrading on destroying employment structure and transferring labor passively, avoiding non-rationalization by “advancing-oriented” employment structure, and reaching employment structural optimization to boost industrial upgrading which is a sustainable path for economic development.
RE-UNDERSTANDING EXCESSIVE COAL PRODUCING CAPACITY BASED ON MEASUREMENT AND SPATIAL EVOLUTION OF LATENT CLASS RANDOM MARGINALIZATION (LCRM)
Excessive producing capacity of coal industry is wasting resources, harmful to a green, efficient and safe energy system. Utilization rate of producing capacity is a key indicator to mark the excess of producing capacity, measuring it will be helpful to tell the excess degree of coal producing capacity and its developing trend, which provides references for authorities to make producing capacity policies and for coal producers to make market strategies. China ‘s coal resource is heterogeneously distributing with different burying geology, which determines its regional developing difference. The past measurements ignored its impacts on utilization rate of producing rate. This paper uses LCRMA to measure 2001 to 2017 utilization rate of coal producing capacity in China ‘s 24 provinces, classifies coal provinces into 4 groups, abundant type, moderate type, insufficient type and exhausted type in terms of the intrinsic variance of mining conditions, and applies spatial counting model to study their spatial evolution of utilization rate of producing capacity in these four groups. Utilization rate of coal producing capacity shows a rising-falling trend during the study period, average at 0.82, with excessive producing capacity varying with groups. Production in insufficient type and exhausted type is approaching the producing margin, suggesting a limited room to improve their utilization rate of producing capacity. Utilization rate of producing capacity in moderate type is average at 0.63, meaning an excessive producing capacity. Factors impacting utilization rate of producing capacity vary with groups. Economy works adversely, but positively on groups with abundant resources, advanced technologies and most large coal bases, indicating expanded producing capacity induced by economic growth ignores quality. Utilization rate of producing capacity is sensitive to changes of market demands, a growing demand is favorable for improving utilization rate of producing capacity. Spatialβconditional convergence exists in utilization rate of coal producing capacity, suggesting industrial migration helpful to spatially increase utilization rate of producing capacity, contributing to a diminishing regional difference. This paper presents suggestions on enhancing infrastructural construction and research inputs in western and new producing bases, accelerating quit and consolidation of lagging producing capacity in central, exerting the key “survival of fittest” role of market in coal producing capacity, actively directing human and management resources in insufficient and exhausted groups to abundant and moderate types so as to reach a quality development of coal industry.
ALUMINUM RESOURCE DEMAND IN NEXT DECADE UNDER NEW INDUSTRIAL SITUATION
Rapid growth of new low carbon industries like of new electric vehicles and photovoltaic recently leads to a surging demand for aluminum resource, but production of primary aluminum has high energy consumption and large carbon emission, challenging the global climate changes and “dual carbon” goal. This paper uses system dynamics simulation model to forecast China ‘s aluminum resource production/consumption in next decade, and quantitatively evaluates its carbon emission potential under normal, policy and ideal scenarios from a perspective of entire life circle “bauxite-aluminum oxide-primary aluminum-aluminum products-recycling aluminum”, and forecasts the future supply of primary and recycling aluminum. In next decade, aluminum demand will be still fast rising, mainly contributed by the growing new energy vehicles. Transportation will become the largest aluminum consuming sector over construction sector. The premium approach to aluminum carbon reduction is to develop recycling aluminum resource, then to optimize electricity-using structure in electrolytic aluminum.To face a challenging global economic situation, this paper presents suggestions on developing power-saving-environment-protecting primary and recycling metallurgical technologies and methods, increasing development/use and recycling levels of aluminum resource, constructing an effective aluminum resource recycling system, decreasing uncertainty in aluminum resource supply so as to secure China ‘s aluminum resource guaranteeing capacity and to boost a quality development of China ‘s aluminum industry.
NON-LINEAR EFFECTS OF GREEN FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT ON CARBON EMISSION FROM PERSPECTIVE OF FINANCIAL ECO-ENVIRONMENT
CARBON EMISSION REDUCTION EFFECTS OF DIGITAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT WITH ADJUSTMENT OF HETEROGENEOUS ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATION
TRAFFIC SUPPORTS IN SITING NEW STEEL PRODUCTION LINES UNDER CHINA’S DUAL-CARBON GOALS: A CASE STUDY ON CHINA BAOWU IRON & STEEL GROUP
China ‘s steel industry needs to replace the lagging production lines with advanced ones and to pursue group strategic reorganization when facing China ‘s dual-carbon goals.Technical advances and industrial policies indicate that siting new steel production lines is beneficial to production bases, and the site ‘s traffic supports matter. This paper uses DPSIR framework and dynamic comprehensive evaluation model to systematically analyze the logic relation between new sites and their traffic system, and establishes an evaluation system and method for new site ‘s traffic supports. Experimental tests based on China ‘s Baowu Iron & Steel group show that new sites will need to be strongly supported by the local urban traffics to reach the dual caron goals. DPSIR framework of new sites ‘ traffic supports include five levels such as driving forces, pressures, status, impacts and responses, all marking their loop logics between bases and cities ‘ traffic systems inside and over the levels. Evaluation results regarding China Baowu Iron & Steel group during 2015 to 2020 not only verifies the feasibilities of this evaluation system and method, but also approves the practice of DPSIR framework of traffic supports on siting new steel production lines.